Finance ministers and central bankers from emerging economies are set to gather in AlUla, Saudi Arabia, this weekend for crucial discussions on global trade shifts and economic resilience. The Conference for Emerging Market Economies, jointly hosted by the International Monetary Fund and Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance, will take place from February 16 to 17, addressing critical issues such as fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, financial stability, and the evolving trade landscape.
As global markets navigate the uncertainty brought on by US President Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariffs, the event carries heightened significance. Trump’s aggressive trade policies—particularly his push for reciprocal tariffs—have unsettled economies reliant on international commerce, including major players like India and Brazil.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al Jadaan are expected to lead the discussions, delivering key insights at the prestigious Maraya event venue. Georgieva’s presence at the conference marks her third major engagement in the Middle East in recent weeks, following the Arab Fiscal Forum and the World Governments Summit in Dubai, where she reiterated concerns over sluggish global growth and mounting public debt.
According to the IMF, economic expansion in the Middle East and North Africa is projected to reach 3.6 percent this year. However, the region faces a dimmer long-term outlook, reflecting a broader global trend of slowing productivity and rising fiscal burdens. By 2030, global public debt is expected to climb to 100 percent of GDP. Many economies in the region are already under pressure, with national debt levels surpassing 70 percent of GDP, raising fears of prolonged economic stagnation.
Trump’s tariff strategy has added another layer of complexity to the global economic picture. His administration has threatened a series of new duties on trade partners, aiming to extract domestic economic concessions. Speaking on Wednesday, Trump defended his approach, stating, “We’re going to be doing reciprocal tariffs—whatever they charge us, we charge them. Very simple.”
Among the most affected economies is India, which has deep trade ties with the US. Bilateral trade between the two nations reached significant levels in 2024, with Indian exports to the US totaling $77.5 billion, while American exports to India stood at $40.7 billion. In an attempt to ease tensions, India recently slashed some import duties, cutting its peak tariff rate from 150 percent to 70 percent. Following a meeting at the White House, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans to negotiate a more balanced trade agreement.
The rise of protectionism has drawn concern from global financial leaders. Both Georgieva and Al Jadaan have warned of the dangers posed by restrictive trade policies, urging emerging economies to explore alternative pathways for sustainable growth. The IMF chief has emphasized the need for greater economic agility, cautioning that traditional trade-driven models may no longer be sufficient to sustain long-term development.
For countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, regional integration has become an increasingly important strategy. At the IMF’s annual meeting in Washington last October, GCC finance ministers highlighted major collaborative initiatives, including infrastructure development, electric grid connectivity, and a regional rail network aimed at boosting economic efficiency.
Georgieva has also pointed to digitalization as a critical driver of economic productivity. Nations in the MENA region that have embraced technological advancements, she noted, are already seeing stronger economic performance compared to those slow to adopt digital transformation.
With the global trade landscape shifting and economic headwinds intensifying, emerging markets must navigate an uncertain future. The discussions in AlUla will be pivotal in shaping how these economies adapt to the evolving global order and seek new avenues for resilience and growth.