The international sanctions wall built around Russia is being tested, not by an adversary, but by its primary architect, the United States. Ongoing talks about energy deals with Moscow are creating potential cracks in the regime, even as the US punishes India for its own Russian trade.
The sanctions regime, imposed after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, was designed to isolate Russia’s economy and limit its access to Western capital and technology. Exxon Mobil’s exit from the Sakhalin-1 project was a major symbol of this policy’s success.
Now, the US is considering a move that would reverse that key action. The discussions about allowing Exxon Mobil to return are being pursued as an incentive for peace talks. However, such a move would be seen globally as a significant concession and could encourage other nations and companies to seek their own exceptions.
This creates a dangerous precedent. While the US enforces the sanctions regime with 50% tariffs on India, its own actions could undermine the very policy it is trying to uphold. It tests the resolve of the global coalition and risks a gradual erosion of the economic pressure on Moscow.
