BP’s controversial internal decision to execute a “fundamental reset,” scaling back some of its green targets to focus on profitable oil and gas production, is implicitly vindicated by its own outlook. The report raises long-term hydrocarbon demand forecasts, confirming that the global transition is too slow to achieve the 2050 net-zero target.
BP’s revised figures confirm the resilience of fossil fuels. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, the company now expects oil demand to peak five years later, in 2030, at 103 million b/d.
The justification for this pivot lies in geopolitical stability and the intensified focus on national energy security. BP’s chief economist notes that conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with rising trade tariffs, compel nations to favor domestic energy supplies. This security-first mandate risks increasing reliance on domestically produced fossil fuels, validating the commercial case for BP’s strategic focus.
The climate consequences of this reality are severe. BP’s modeling indicates that the current energy trajectory will lead the world to breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The report cautions that this delay significantly increases the economic and social costs required for future stabilization efforts. To stay on track for net-zero 2050, oil demand must drop drastically to approximately 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite rapid growth in wind and solar power, oil will maintain its market dominance. Oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are not projected to surpass oil until the late 2040s, illustrating the decades-long window for hydrocarbon profitability that BP is now targeting.
