Russia has initiated a one-year trial run for post-treaty nuclear cooperation, with President Vladimir Putin announcing a voluntary commitment to the expired New START limits. The move is a real-world test to see if informal arms control is possible between the two nuclear superpowers.
The parameters of the trial are clear: for the next twelve months, Russia will cap its deployed nuclear arsenal at 1,550 warheads and 700 delivery systems. Putin described this as a justified experiment to “maintain the status quo” and ensure stability.
The main variable being tested is the United States. The success of this trial run, as defined by Moscow, is entirely contingent on American reciprocity. Putin stated the measure is only “viable” if the U.S. participates by showing similar restraint.
A successful trial, according to Putin, would yield significant results. It could prove that cooperation is still possible and create an “atmosphere conducive to substantive strategic dialogue,” potentially leading to a more permanent, formalized arrangement in the future.
At the end of the year, Russia will analyze the data from this trial—namely, the actions of the United States. Based on that analysis, it will decide whether to extend the experiment, abandon it, or pursue a different strategic path altogether.
