The U.S. travel industry is facing an unexpected downturn as global sentiment toward President Donald Trump’s policies leads to a sharp decline in international tourism. New projections indicate that foreign arrivals will decrease by 5.1% in 2025, a dramatic shift from the previously expected 8.8% increase, according to a Tourism Economics report. Additionally, spending by international travelers is predicted to fall by nearly 11%.
The situation has worsened in recent weeks, with key policy decisions—including trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as restrictive immigration measures—sparking apprehension among potential visitors. Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics, cited “growing antipathy toward the U.S.” as a major factor discouraging travel.
Policies Fueling the Decline
A combination of economic and political factors is driving the downturn. The U.S. has imposed higher tariffs on key trading partners, threatened economic penalties on the European Union, and significantly tightened immigration policies. Meanwhile, sweeping layoffs within government agencies, including the U.S. Agency for International Development, have fueled concerns about political instability.
Many industry experts warn that Trump’s hardline policies and rhetoric may deter both leisure and business travelers. Tourism Economics noted that global companies might reconsider hosting conferences or sending employees to the U.S., further shrinking the travel sector’s economic contribution.
The World Tourism Forum Institute also expressed concerns, highlighting that a combination of restrictive border policies, currency fluctuations, and global uncertainty could reshape the American tourism industry for years.
Changing Perceptions of America as a Travel Destination
Surveys reflect the shifting global sentiment. A YouGov poll conducted in December across 16 European and Asian countries found that 35% of respondents were less inclined to visit the U.S. under Trump’s leadership, compared to just 22% who expressed increased interest.
Despite the growing unease, some tourists remain undeterred. Travelers like Marianela Lopez and Ailen Hadjikovakis from Argentina chose to use their European passports instead of their Argentine ones to avoid any potential border complications. Others, like the Lagardere family from France, believe avoiding the U.S. won’t change the political landscape.
However, the economic impact is already being felt. Western European tourists—who accounted for 37% of visitors in 2024—are increasingly looking at alternative destinations. Canadian travel to the U.S., which made up 20.4 million visits last year, is seeing a significant drop, with a 23% decline reported in February alone.
Economic Consequences and Industry Response
The tourism industry is bracing for financial setbacks, with the U.S. Travel Association warning that customs tariffs could further discourage Canadian visitors. In New York, one of the top destinations for foreign travelers, Canadian tour bookings have plummeted, and online searches for Broadway shows and hotels have seen noticeable declines.
United Airlines and other carriers have reported a drop in both Canadian travel and domestic bookings, reflecting a broader shift in consumer sentiment. Tourism Economics estimates that the industry could lose up to $64 billion in revenue in 2025 due to declining visitor numbers.
Beyond economic fears, concerns over the U.S. dollar’s strength also loom large. A stronger currency makes the country more expensive for foreign travelers, further reducing visitor numbers and shortening their stays. Experts also worry that immigration restrictions could affect international participation in major sporting events, including the Ryder Cup (2025), FIFA World Cup (2026), and the Los Angeles Summer Olympics (2028).
As global travel trends shift, industry leaders are closely monitoring whether the Trump administration’s policies will continue to erode the U.S.’s reputation as a premier tourist destination—or if market forces will push for a policy reversal before lasting damage is done.