New analysis reveals that China is actively conducting oil and gas operations within Taiwan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Analysts are calling this a classic “greyzone” strategy, a calculated approach to expand Beijing’s influence without sparking a direct military conflict. The incursions, which were observed in July and August, involved at least a dozen vessels and permanent structures. One vessel was reportedly found within 50 kilometers of the Pratas Islands, a strategically important location.
The operations, which include massive wellhead platforms, are seen as a deliberate attempt to blur the lines between commercial activity and state coercion. By continuously operating in these contested waters, China aims to normalize its presence and gradually reduce the area that Taipei can effectively control and defend. This incremental approach is a key feature of the “greyzone” playbook, which aims to achieve strategic goals without resorting to open warfare.
Taiwan’s official response to the incursions has been notably muted. This has led to concern among some observers who warn that a quiet response risks normalizing the encroachment. Experts point to legal and capacity constraints that complicate Taiwan’s ability to push back effectively against these actions. The legal ambiguity of the EEZ and the sheer scale of China’s operations make a strong response difficult for Taipei to implement.
The use of commercial vessels for these strategic operations is a key part of the deception. It allows China to assert its claims under the guise of economic activity, making it harder for other nations to respond. This tactic is a hallmark of the new era of geopolitical competition, where nations are using a variety of tools to achieve their objectives.
The situation is a test case for how the international community will respond to “greyzone” tactics. The lack of a strong international condemnation could encourage further such actions. The international community is watching to see how this situation unfolds and what it means for the future of maritime security in the region.
