The Canadian federal election campaign is just under two weeks in, but the momentum has clearly swung in favor of the Liberals. According to the latest Nanos Research tracking poll, Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has opened up a commanding nine-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, capturing 46% of voter support compared to the Conservatives’ 37%.
The New Democratic Party (NDP), once a formidable third force in Canadian politics, has now slipped into single digits at 9%, indicating a potentially steep uphill battle ahead. The poll, conducted between March 31 and April 2, reveals a consistent upward trajectory for the Liberals, whose support has risen steadily from 42% to 46% over the past five days.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, noted the significant shifts in voter sentiment: “The Liberals are clearly building momentum, while the NDP’s slide to single digits is a major blow, especially for a party that has previously served as the Official Opposition.”
Leadership preferences mirror this trend. Half of the respondents named Mark Carney as their preferred prime minister, giving him a 17-point edge over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, who trails at 33%. Nanos suggests Carney is benefiting from a political dynamic similar to Ontario’s recent provincial election, where voters rallied behind a centrist leader perceived as a stabilizing alternative to far-right rhetoric. “Carney seems to be reaping the rewards of being viewed as a steady, moderate voice at a time of global uncertainty,” Nanos said.
The unexpected decision by Carney to call a snap election for April 28 has added urgency and unpredictability to the race. With the potential to reshape Canada’s domestic and foreign policy—particularly with the United States and India, whose diplomatic ties were strained under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—the coming weeks could redefine the nation’s political landscape.