More than any other candidate in recent memory, Donald Trump has transformed the typically sober Nobel Peace Prize speculation into a full-blown media spectacle. While this guarantees him headlines, experts argue that this very spectacle is off-putting to the serious-minded committee in Oslo and ultimately harms his already slim chances.
Every year, there is a “guessing game” over the Nobel winner, but Trump’s presence elevates it to a new level. His celebrity status, his constant self-promotion, and the polarized reactions he provokes make him a compelling character in the annual drama. Bookmakers list him as a favorite precisely because he drives so much public interest and betting activity.
However, the Norwegian Nobel Committee is an institution that shuns the spotlight. Its deliberations are secret, its members rarely give interviews, and its decisions are announced with solemn formality. They see their work as a serious responsibility, not a form of entertainment. The media circus surrounding a candidate like Trump is likely viewed as an unwelcome distraction.
Nina Græger of the Peace Research Institute Oslo hinted at this when she discussed the committee’s desire to avoid appearing to be influenced by political pressure. A media spectacle fueled by the candidate himself is the ultimate form of this pressure. The committee will want to demonstrate that their decision is based on merit, not on who can generate the most clicks or command the most airtime.
In the end, the spectacle may be all that Trump gets from his Nobel bid. He has successfully made himself the center of the story, as he so often does. But the Nobel Prize is not awarded for winning the news cycle. It is awarded for winning the peace, and the committee in Oslo is far more interested in the quiet substance of the latter than the loud spectacle of the former.
